Chuck Todd Sez:
Be careful over-interpreting the independents number for McCain in current polls. The reason he’s doing well among indies is that a growing slice of them are former Republicans.
This goes to the party I.D. issue. As more folks refuse to identify themselves as GOPers, they move into the independent category, making those voters more conservative than we’ve seen in the past and therefore artificially increasing McCain’s share among them.
They weight these polls on party affiliation based on self-report. So, if the self-reporting is wrong, the weights are wrong too. That’s good news for Democrats if their lead among actual Independants is bigger than the polling suggests, and also good news if Republicans are jumping overboard.
It seems to fit in with what might end up being a motif in this election — Republicans ashamed to be Republicans. McCains first TV ad is all about how he can really stick it to those nasty Republicans. Nobody wants to be seen as Republican. Not even their nominee.
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